The read
Analysis of Oct 28, 2026, on data through Oct 28, 2026. Charts under each judgment are its evidence; sources are linked in the text.
- Long yields are rising for real reasons, not out of fear of inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on Oct 26, 2026 after touching 5.31% on Oct 5, 2026, and the 30-year 5.31%. The real 10-year yield is 2.66%, higher than in 98% of weeks since 2003. Long-run inflation expectations are steady at 2.23%, lower than in 58% of weeks since 2003. What has risen is the real rate and the term premium, the extra pay for holding long bonds, now 0.97 percentage points, up 0.53 points from a year earlier.
10-year real yield and 5y5y forward breakeven inflation
Percent, weekly average.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.15); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Readings in this chart
10-year term premium
Percentage points, weekly average. The primer cites the New York Fed's ACM estimate; this is the Federal Reserve Board's Kim-Wright estimate of the same quantity, which FRED publishes.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (Kim-Wright).
Readings in this chart