The read
Analysis of Oct 28, 2026, on data through Oct 28, 2026. Charts under each judgment are its evidence; sources are linked in the text.
- Headline inflation is an oil and tariff shock; the underlying trend is cooling. Consumer prices rose 3.74% over the year to September 2026, and producer prices 6.35%. ISM's September survey of manufacturers put prices paid at 77.9, up from 71.1, citing steel, aluminum, tariffs and oil. (Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI Report On Business) Measures that strip out the biggest price moves tell a different story: the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean PCE is 2.19%, down 0.66 percentage points from a year earlier, and rent inflation has slowed to 2.78%.
Inflation: headline CPI and core PCE prices
Percent change from a year earlier, monthly.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Readings in this chart
Underlying inflation
Twelve-month change in two measures that drop the most extreme price moves each month: the Cleveland Fed's median CPI and the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean PCE.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Readings in this chart
Rent inflation in the consumer price index
Twelve-month change in rent of primary residence, monthly. Official rents follow market rents with a lag of about a year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Readings in this chart