The read
Analysis of Oct 28, 2026, on data through Oct 28, 2026. Charts under each judgment are its evidence; sources are linked in the text.
- Public credit markets are priced for calm. Junk-bond investors asked 3.30 percentage points over Treasuries in the week to Oct 26, 2026, and Baa-rated companies 1.48 percentage points, lower than in 71% of months since 1953. Chicago Fed financial conditions are at -0.49, looser than average, and the share of banks tightening business-loan standards fell to 0.0%.
High-yield bond spread
Extra yield on US junk bonds over Treasuries, percentage points, weekly average. Spreads widen ahead of and during credit stress. FRED publishes only the last three years of this ICE index.
Source: ICE Data Indices.
Readings in this chart
Corporate credit spread: Baa bond yield minus the 10-year Treasury
Percentage points, monthly. Wider spreads mean lenders demand more for credit risk.
Source: Moody's, via FRED.
Readings in this chart
Financial conditions
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, weekly. Zero is average; below zero is looser than average, above is tighter.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Readings in this chart