The read
Analysis of Oct 28, 2026, on data through Oct 28, 2026. Charts under each judgment are its evidence; sources are linked in the text.
- Gold has broken its old link with real yields. Gold averaged $4,319 an ounce, up 18% from a year earlier, while the real 10-year yield is 2.66%, higher than in 98% of weeks since 2003. Until 2022, high real yields reliably held gold down. That rule has failed for four years.
Gold since 2003
Dollars per troy ounce, monthly average. Same years as the real-yield chart below, for comparison.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (CC BY 4.0).
Readings in this chart
10-year real yield (TIPS)
Percent, weekly average. The primer's first gold indicator: gold pays no income, so it tends to compete with real yields.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.15).
Readings in this chart