Market Primer
ENIAC, the first general-purpose electronic computer, at the US Army's Ballistic Research Laboratory
ENIAC, the first general-purpose electronic computer, at the US Army's Ballistic Research Laboratory. Image: US Army, public domain
Part D: The Technology and Industrialization Engine

Layer 13The technology investment cycle

The read

Analysis of Oct 28, 2026, on data through Oct 28, 2026. Charts under each judgment are its evidence; sources are linked in the text.

  • The technology investment boom is still accelerating, and it is now larger relative to the economy than in the late 1990s. Business investment in information-processing equipment and software is 5.0% of GDP, the highest reading since the series begins in 1947. The four largest cloud companies spent $511 billion over the past four quarters, up 75% from a year earlier (Layer 14).

    Business investment in information processing equipment and software

    Percent of GDP, quarterly. The long cycle of technology investment, from mainframes to the 1990s build-out to today.

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

    Readings in this chart

Inside this layer 14 AI capex and data centers15 Semiconductors16 Power and the grid17 Industrial base and materials18 Productivity and labor